January-February 2025 China's Prebaked Anode Export Orders Show Significant Growth, Canada Replaces Malaysia as the Primary Export Destination [SMM Analysis]

SMM March 23 News: According to customs data, China's prebaked anode exports in January 2025 were 176,400 mt, and in February 2025 were 207,800 mt. The average export price of prebaked anodes in January was approximately $658.95/mt, down 9.66% YoY and up 1.46% MoM; in February 2024, the average export price was about $685.44/mt, up 4.6% YoY and up 4.02% MoM. In the first two months of 2025, China's total prebaked anode exports reached 384,100 mt, up 33.48% YoY. In terms of domestic export regions, in 2025, prebaked anode exports were concentrated in Shandong, Hunan, and Jiangsu. Among them, Shandong's total exports were 315,700 mt, accounting for 82% of the total, ranking first; followed by Hunan with 25,000 mt, or 7% of the total, and then Jiangsu with 24,600 mt, or 6% of the total. Regarding export destinations, in 2025, the main countries for China's prebaked anode exports were Canada, UAE, and Malaysia, accounting for around 49% of the total exports. Exports to Canada totaled 79,200 mt, or 21% of the total, up 127.41% YoY; to the UAE, 53,300 mt, or 14% of the total, up 12.59% YoY; and to Malaysia, 53,100 mt, or 14% of the total, down 32.89% YoY. Overall, at the beginning of 2025, prebaked anode export orders performed well, increasing by about one-third compared to the same period last year, especially for orders to Indonesia and Canada, which saw significant growth. Additionally, orders to Malaysia decreased significantly, mainly due to a reduction in demand following a sudden accident that led to production capacity shutdowns at Malaysian aluminum enterprises. SMM understands that 2025's export orders are generally excellent, primarily because of increased demand from new capacity additions and capacity recovery in the overseas aluminum market. Since Q1, domestic prebaked anode prices have risen substantially, supported by a sharp increase in raw material prices, and overseas order prices have also increased in line with raw material prices. Based on current information, SMM expects prebaked anode exports in Q1 2025 to be around 550,000 mt.